Intelligence Value
The HFC program developed and tested hybrid geopolitical forecasting systems, which integrated human and machine forecasting components to create accurate, flexible, and scalable forecasting capabilities.
Summary
Intelligence analysts are faced with the daunting task of developing intellectually rigorous, well-supported assessments of geopolitical events using volumes of data that are often beyond their capability to fully ingest. Machine-driven analytical systems can process large amounts of data quickly and efficiently but lack the nuanced cognitive capabilities of human analysts. The goal of HFC was to integrate the strengths of human cognitive and reasoning abilities with those of machine-driven systems to produce maximally accurate forecasts of geopolitical and economic events. HFC-defined success outcomes include training methods for human forecasters to weigh human and machine judgments, predictive models that incorporate machine and human judgments, and crowdsourcing platforms that enable human and machine forecasters to interact effectively. HFC completed nearly three years of research in May 2020.
