...in 2011, [IARPA] launched a huge forecasting tournament for the public. At the beginning, there were five teams, and over the next four years, thousands of ordinary Joes and Janes would answer about 500 questions, like: Will North Korea launch a new multistage missile before May 10, 2014? Will Robert Mugabe cease to be president of Zimbabwe by September 30, 2011? The teams had to reach certain benchmarks of accuracy; if they failed, they were eliminated. After the first two years, only one team remained. It was led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, and called Good Judgment.
Meet the Elite Team of Superforecasters Who Have Turned Future-Gazing Into a Science
December 06, 2021
